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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | ATL | 18.8 | 20.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | CAR | 15.2 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | DAL | 13.4 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | LAR | 20.9 | 21.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | PIT | 15.5 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Hunter Henry | BAL | 10.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | LAR | 8.3 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | SEA | 5.1 | 5.0 | BUST | MEDIUM |
| WR | Tetairoa McMillan | TB | 13.1 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Injury-created opportunities for playoff weeks 16-17
Cowboys are a dumpster fire - allowing 30+ PPG, Cooper Rush at QB, no run game. Chargers D has scored 10+ in 2 straight weeks (W14: 10, W13: 11). This...
With Mahomes OUT (ACL), Chiefs will lean heavily on run game. Pacheco is the clear lead back. Rolling avg is cold but that was WITH Mahomes - game scr...
Christian Watson OUT with chest/shoulder injury. Reed becomes clear #1 WR in Green Bay. Saturday divisional game, Love should be slinging. Elite targe...
⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Chiefs D/ST, Emanuel Wilson
See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.
Week 16 playoff semi-finals present several key decisions. Jacoby Brissett emerges as our top QB play in a favorable dome matchup against Atlanta, which has allowed top-6 fantasy QB scores in 2 of their last 3 games. The Cardinals QB has been remarkably consistent across 9 starts this season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads our WR corps with elite target share against the Rams on Thursday Night Football, while Bucky Irving gets a smash RB matchup against Carolina defense that allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to running backs. The Mahomes ACL tear significantly impacts Rashee Rice outlook—with Gardner Minshew starting in rainy Nashville, Rice slides to the bench in favor of Tetairoa McMillan in the FLEX.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 18.8 | 20.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 15.2 | 17.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.9 | 21.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.8 | 13.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.1 | 8.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 15.9 | 17.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.3 | 11.0 |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 2.8 | 5.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.4 | 9.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.4 | 18.0 |
| Marcus Mariota (bench) | QB | BE | 14.9 | 12.0 |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.1 | 14.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 8.7 | 6.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | IR | 14.2 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | 16.6 | 18.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB | 23.8 | 22.0 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | 15.4 | 12.0 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | 13.4 | 8.0 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | 16.8 | 14.0 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.5 | 12.0 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.7 | 7.0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) | RB | BE | 7.9 | --- |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | 7.2 | --- |
| Rome Odunze (bench) | WR | BE | 13.1 | --- |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | 9.6 | --- |
| Ryan Flournoy (bench) | WR | BE | 6.9 | --- |
| Shedeur Sanders (bench) | QB | BE | 12.9 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 50% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust (this week). Agreement on MODERATE. Cold weather at Soldier Field (32°F, 15mph wind) slightly depresses ceiling but 46.5 game total is favorable. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.0 pts (within 9-24 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 42% BOOM (historical upside). XGB: 17% boom, 51% bust (this week). Now the starter (Jayden Daniels out). PHI has strong defense but Mariota has rushing floor. Cold weather, risky. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 12.0 pts (within 7-22 range).
Context: O/U: 45.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NYG | 18.2 | 20.0 | 14.7 | -3.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | - | -2.1 | -2.1 |
| 13 | BYE | 14.8 | - | 23.3 | +8.4 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BYE | 18.2 | - | 15.4 | -2.8 |
| 10 | BYE | 16.3 | - | 18.7 | +2.4 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 16.9 | - | 11.3 | -5.6 |
| 7 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | ATL | 0.0 | - | 16.2 | +16.2 |
| 3 | BYE | 17.0 | - | 20.3 | +3.2 |
| 2 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | BYE | 0.2 | - | 0.0 | -0.2 |
Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 72% BOOM (historical pattern), 26% BUST. XGB: 13% boom, 39% bust (this week). MC shows extremely boom-heavy distribution. Reddit buzz: "matchup-proof 20-point QB" across 9 starts. ATL allows top-6 fantasy QB in 2 of 3 weeks. Dome game, 46.5 total. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 20.0 pts (within 12-30 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 72%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 64% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 51% bust (this week). XGB heavily bust-biased but CAR allows 2nd-most fantasy pts to RBs - strong smash matchup. Trusting matchup over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 17.0 pts (within 8-20 range).
Context: O/U: 45.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 64% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 43% bust (this week). Same rain/wind game as Rice. Backup RB role limits upside. Poor game script if KC leads. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
Context: O/U: 37.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 10% boom, 53% bust (this week). XGB heavily bust-biased but DAL allows 33rd-ranked pts to RBs (worst in NFL). High 49.5 total dome game. Trust matchup over model. Mode: MODERATE (mid-high). Projection: 14.0 pts (within 6-18 range).
Context: O/U: 49.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 7.4 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust (this week). Strong BUST agreement. MIN defense has NOT allowed a TD pass in 5 games - elite unit. NYG likely playing from behind with limited run game. Cold, windy conditions. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -1-6 range).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12% boom, 22% bust (this week). JSN has elite target share in SEA offense. LAR secondary beatable. Good conditions Thursday night. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 21.0 pts (within 13-25 range).
Context: O/U: 44.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week). Rookie WR1 for CAR in good weather vs TB. Balanced distribution. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 8-20 range).
Context: O/U: 45.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT - On IR. Zero projection.
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM, 31% BUST (historical high variance). XGB: 25% boom, 33% bust (this week). CRITICAL: Mahomes OUT (ACL), Minshew starting. Plus 80% rain and 18mph wind at Nashville. Volume floor remains but ceiling capped significantly. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 13.0 pts (within 10-22 range).
Context: O/U: 37.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.5 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 30% BUST (historical). XGB: 12% boom, 46% bust (this week). SHOOTOUT SCRIPT: DET vs PIT has 49.5 total, DET -6.5 favorites. DET offense will be aggressive. 21% target share makes JW a smash play in high-scoring environment. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 17.0 pts (within 10-22 range).
Context: O/U: 49.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 46% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 41% MODERATE, 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust (this week). XGB very bust-heavy. Dome game but only 40.5 total. Limited ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 5-14 range).
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.4 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 46% MODERATE, 42% BUST (historical). XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust (this week). XGB heavily bust but 48.5 total primetime game. NE needs passing options. Mode: MODERATE (low-mid). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 7-16 range).
Context: O/U: 48.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 18.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 50% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust (this week). Agreement on MODERATE. Cold weather at Soldier Field (32°F, 15mph wind) slightly depresses ceiling but 46.5 game total is favorable. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.0 pts (within 9-24 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 45% | Bust 19%
Notes: CONFIRMED OUT - On IR. Zero projection.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 13.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 33%
Notes: MC: 43% BOOM, 31% BUST (historical high variance). XGB: 25% boom, 33% bust (this week). CRITICAL: Mahomes OUT (ACL), Minshew starting. Plus 80% rain and 18mph wind at Nashville. Volume floor remains but ceiling capped significantly. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 13.0 pts (within 10-22 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 43%
Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 43% bust (this week). Same rain/wind game as Rice. Backup RB role limits upside. Poor game script if KC leads. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 41% MODERATE, 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust (this week). XGB very bust-heavy. Dome game but only 40.5 total. Limited ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 5-14 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 7.4 | LLM 5.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%
Notes: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust (this week). Strong BUST agreement. MIN defense has NOT allowed a TD pass in 5 games - elite unit. NYG likely playing from behind with limited run game. Cold, windy conditions. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -1-6 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 2.9 | LLM 5.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 32%
Notes: MC: 34% BUST, 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 24% boom, 32% bust (this week). GB offense competent with Jordan Love. High 46.5 game total suggests points scored. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -3-9 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CLE | 6.7 | 9.0 | 18.0 | +11.3 |
| 14 | GB | 2.5 | - | 2.0 | -0.5 |
| 13 | PHI | 3.5 | - | 5.0 | +1.5 |
| 12 | PIT | 4.7 | - | 6.0 | +1.3 |
| 11 | MIN | 5.7 | - | 7.0 | +1.3 |
| 10 | NYG | 4.4 | - | 3.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | CIN | 5.1 | - | 1.0 | -4.1 |
| 8 | BAL | 6.1 | - | 0.0 | -6.1 |
| 7 | NO | 5.0 | - | 15.0 | +10.0 |
| 6 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 9.0 | +5.5 |
| 4 | LV | 5.2 | - | 9.0 | +3.8 |
| 3 | DAL | 3.5 | - | 10.0 | +6.5 |
| 2 | DET | 3.6 | - | -11.0 | -14.6 |
| 1 | MIN | 6.7 | - | 13.0 | +6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 51%
Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE, 42% BOOM (historical upside). XGB: 17% boom, 51% bust (this week). Now the starter (Jayden Daniels out). PHI has strong defense but Mariota has rushing floor. Cold weather, risky. Mode: MODERATE (low). Projection: 12.0 pts (within 7-22 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NYG | 18.2 | 20.0 | 14.7 | -3.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | - | -2.1 | -2.1 |
| 13 | BYE | 14.8 | - | 23.3 | +8.4 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BYE | 18.2 | - | 15.4 | -2.8 |
| 10 | BYE | 16.3 | - | 18.7 | +2.4 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 16.9 | - | 11.3 | -5.6 |
| 7 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | ATL | 0.0 | - | 16.2 | +16.2 |
| 3 | BYE | 17.0 | - | 20.3 | +3.2 |
| 2 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | BYE | 0.2 | - | 0.0 | -0.2 |
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | JAX | 5.7 | 7.0 | MODERATE | 48% | 32% | 20% | HIGH |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 14.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 29% | 50% | 20% | MEDIUM |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 16.8 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 26% | 55% | 19% | MEDIUM |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 10.5 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 18% | 49% | 32% | LOW |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 16.6 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 17% | 61% | 22% | LOW |
| Harrison Butker | K | KC | 8.0 | 7.0 | MODERATE | 16% | 28% | 56% | LOW |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | CAR | 15.4 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 16% | 57% | 27% | LOW |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 13.4 | 8.0 | BUST | 8% | 34% | 58% | LOW |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 23.7 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 7% | 24% | 68% | LOW |
Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 38%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)
DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 20%)
Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 26% | Bust 19%)
Jordan Addison: MC (BUST: 56% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 7%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 32%)
Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 36% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 22%)
Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 56%)
Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 53% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 27%)
Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 59% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 17%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 58%)
Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 54% | MODERATE: 19% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 68%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Injury-created opportunities for playoff weeks 16-17
Cowboys are a dumpster fire - allowing 30+ PPG, Cooper Rush at QB, no run game. Chargers D has scored 10+ in 2 straight weeks (W14: 10, W13: 11). This is THE defensive stream of Week 16.
Week 17: vs NE - another soft matchup
With Mahomes OUT (ACL), Chiefs will lean heavily on run game. Pacheco is the clear lead back. Rolling avg is cold but that was WITH Mahomes - game script changes everything. Gardner Minshew will check down and lean on the run.
Week 17: vs LAC - tougher matchup but still the RB1
Christian Watson OUT with chest/shoulder injury. Reed becomes clear #1 WR in Green Bay. Saturday divisional game, Love should be slinging. Elite target share opportunity in plus matchup.
Week 17: @ MIN - tough but WR1 role locked
James Conner on IR, Trey Benson on IR - Carter is THE guy. Had 18 touches, 80% snap share in Week 15. Emari Demercado is back but Carter has earned lead role. Two-week playoff stretch with volume.
Week 17: vs CIN (31st vs RB) - ELITE Week 17 matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 9.1 | 52% | 17% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.2 | 50% | 18% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.2 | 31% | 23% | 0.0% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.4 | 31% | 29% | 0.0% | |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 10.2 | 28% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.3 | 26% | 28% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 7.5 | 24% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 22% | 28% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 0.0 | 21% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Eddy Pineiro | K | 9.7 | 19% | 42% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.2 | 16% | 52% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 16% | 47% | 0.0% | |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.7 | 15% | 42% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 16.9 | 12% | 52% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 15.7 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:26% | 15% | 42% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.9 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 12% | 52% | |
| Justin Fields | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 12% | 51% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.2 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 50% | 18% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 22% | 28% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.7 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 56% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 8.1 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:11% | 11% | 54% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.8 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 8% | 58% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 21% | 30% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.2 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:13% | 16% | 52% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22% | 16% | 47% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 11% | 58% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.8 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 55% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.2 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 31% | 23% | |
| Zach Ertz | 10.2 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% | 28% | 24% | |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 9.4 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:15% | 8% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.3 | 26% | 28% | |
| Eddy Pineiro | 9.7 | 19% | 42% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.6 | 10% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | 9.1 | 52% | 17% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.4 | 31% | 29% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 7.5 | 24% | 38% |
Win Probability
Floor: -42.2 pts | Median: +1.3 pts | Ceiling: +42.7 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 20.0 | 4.0-27.7 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 17.0 | 5.2-24.3 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.7-24.4 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 21.0 | 6.3-30.3 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 13.0 | 6.0-28.0 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.0 | 4.1-25.0 | ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.8-16.8 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 5.0 | 0.5-16.1 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 38% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 11.0 | 5.2-17.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 18.0 | 6.4-28.3 | ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | MED | 12.0 | 5.2-26.9 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 2.3-18.9 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 5.0 | 0.7-18.5 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 51% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 5.4-26.1 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.2-21.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 5.0 | 1.1-18.5 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.7-22.0 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 17% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | MED | 18.0 | 6.2-28.0 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | HIGH | 22.0 | 10.1-40.1 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.8-28.3 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 5.0-22.6 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 5.4-22.2 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.2-30.7 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 14.0 | 8.2-26.4 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.4-17.7 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Harrison Butker | K | HIGH | 7.0 | 2.8-14.8 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 27% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | HIGH | 16.6 | 5.9-28.1 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.8 | 2.8-20.6 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.7-14.5 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 36% | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.0-22.3 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 10.6 | 2.3-20.6 | ↑15+: 24% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | HIGH | 10.1 | 2.0-22.8 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 7.6 | 1.3-15.6 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 38% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.3 | 64% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.7 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.6 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.4 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 23.0 | 47% @ 12.0 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.9 | 47% @ 11.8 | 33% @ 6.4 | 11.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 14.9 | 41% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.6 | 30% @ 5.4 | 14.6 |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 19% @ 15.3 | 47% @ 8.1 | 34% @ 2.9 | 7.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 72% @ 21.3 | 2% @ 14.7 | 26% @ 5.9 | 17.2 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 56.8% | 29.2% | 14.0% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 14.2 | 0.0 | OUT | 44.8% | 36.1% | 19.2% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.4 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 26.6% | 51.7% | 21.7% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.8 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 25.2% | 41.6% | 33.2% |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 2.9 | 5.0 | BUST | 24.3% | 43.7% | 32.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.1 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 20.8% | 56.9% | 22.3% |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | 0.0 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 17.4% | 31.7% | 50.9% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 15.0% | 24.6% | 60.4% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.7 | 6.0 | MODERATE | 14.1% | 43.3% | 42.6% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 7.4 | 5.0 | BUST | 13.8% | 31.0% | 55.2% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 18.8 | 20.0 | BOOM | 13.1% | 47.9% | 39.0% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 5.1 | 5.0 | BUST | 12.8% | 28.0% | 59.2% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 15.5 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 12.3% | 41.4% | 46.4% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 21.0 | MODERATE | 12.0% | 66.2% | 21.8% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 11.1% | 38.3% | 50.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.4 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 10.5% | 36.8% | 52.8% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 8.7% | 31.5% | 59.8% |
Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1765.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1822.8 | 1558.6 | +264.2 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1705.9 | 1731.9 | -26.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1664.9 | -149.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1674.7 | +55.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1664.9 | 1778.5 | -113.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1646.9 | +17.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1653.5 | 1752.0 | -98.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Valued Customers |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Meat Pistols |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
HIGH SCORING (boom environments): - PIT @ DET: 49.5 total, DET -6.5 (Jameson Williams in shootout) - LAC @ DAL: 49.5 total (Omarion Hampton dome game) - NE @ BAL: 48.5 total (Hunter Henry primetime) - GB @ CHI: 46.5 total (Jordan Love cold weather) - ATL @ ARI: 46.5 total, dome (Jacoby Brissett favorable)
LOW SCORING (bust environments): - KC @ TEN: 37.5 total + RAIN/WIND (Rashee Rice, Tyjae Spears depressed) - NYJ @ NO: 40.5 total (Juwan Johnson moderate ceiling)
LOCKED-IN STARTERS (high confidence): - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1) - elite target share vs LAR - Bucky Irving (RB1) - juicy CAR matchup (2nd most pts to RBs) - Jacoby Brissett (QB1) - matchup-proof, ATL favorable - Jameson Williams (FLEX) - DET shootout script
SOLID STARTERS: - Rashee Rice (WR2) - volume play but Minshew + weather concerns - Omarion Hampton (RB2) - high-total dome game - Jordan Love (QB) - cold weather but 46.5 total
ACCEPTABLE: - Tetairoa McMillan (WR3/FLEX) - solid matchup vs TB - Hunter Henry (TE) - primetime, 48.5 total - Jason Myers (K) - consistent in favorable conditions
AVOID/SIT: - Devin Singletary - MIN elite defense - Marcus Mariota - tough PHI matchup - Bears D/ST - GB offense competent - Rams D/ST - SEA at home is tricky - Tyjae Spears - rain game + backup role
Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Courtland Sutton, Tyrone Tracy
Negative Buzz: George Pickens, Rashee Rice (weather+QB)
Mixed Buzz: Gardner Minshew
['Chargers D/ST is THE pickup - DAL allows 30+ PPG, Chargers have 10+ pts in 2 straight', 'Isiah Pacheco: Mahomes OUT changes everything - Chiefs will run heavy vs TEN', 'Jayden Reed: Christian Watson OUT makes Reed clear WR1 in Saturday divisional game', 'Michael Carter: Conner + Benson on IR, Carter had 80% snaps Week 15, elite Week 17 @ CIN', 'AVOID: Keenan Allen (COLD -41%), Chiefs D/ST (COLD -73%), Emanuel Wilson (volatile)']
No major injury concerns.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 16)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.7 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -21.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 20.0 | 0.0 | -20.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.5 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.4 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Marcus Mariota | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 14.9 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Jordan Addison | 10.5 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Bears D/ST | 2.9 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 10.0 | 24.0 | +14.0 |
| Free Agent | TE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 0.0 | - | 12.0 | +12.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 17.0 | 26.4 | +9.4 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Steelers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 9.0 | +9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 13.0 | 4.5 | -8.5 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Bears D/ST | 6.6 | 10.0 | 18.0 | +8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 16.0 | 8.1 | -7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.8 | 10.0 | 2.4 | -7.6 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 13.0 | 20.6 | +7.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.6 | 25.0 | 18.3 | -6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 8.0 | 14.4 | +6.4 |
| Our Team | QB | Marcus Mariota | 18.1 | 21.0 | 14.7 | -6.3 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | -1.0 | -6.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Chuba Hubbard | 0.0 | - | 4.8 | +4.8 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 16.0 | 12.1 | -3.9 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | -3.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | -1.4 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 14.0 | 13.9 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.